Introduction
Throughout the course of the WxChallenge competition in METEO 410, I have learned a lot about weather forecasting. Before the competition began, I really was not sure what to expect from it but have found it to be a very interesting experience. Creating forecasts for a particular city was a lot harder and more involved than I originally thought it would be, especially with abnormal weather patterns. There were a lot of times throughout the competition when weather patterns were strongly departing from climatology and it made for some interesting (and difficult) forecasts. The competition definitely gave me a new respect for meteorologists and the amount of work that goes into making a forecast.
Out of the four required predictions for the competition (high and low temperatures, maximum sustained wind speed, and total liquid precipitation), I found the precipitation forecast to be the most challenging. In my short forecasting experience, it seemed like the computer models frequently disagreed when it came to precipitation totals which made it difficult to predict an exact amount. A lot can also go wrong when it comes to forecasting precipitation.
I will be discussing a precipitation forecast for the fifth forecast city of the competition, Fargo, North Dakota, that ended up busting. The forecast bust took place on April 2nd, 2010, during the second forecasting week for Fargo and on the last day of the WxChallenge competition. I had been confident that Fargo would receive some precipitation that day but as it turned out, no precipitation fell.
First, let’s take a look at the climatology for Fargo to see what is typical for early April when the forecast bust occurred. Before making a forecast, it is always a good idea to have in mind what is average for the time of the year for the forecast location.
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